Fold Equity Calculator
This tool calculates the **Break-Even Fold Percentage** for a poker bet or bluff. This is the minimum percentage of the time your opponent(s) must fold for your action to be immediately profitable, assuming you have 0% equity when called.
Enter your bet size relative to the current pot size (before your bet). Ensure both values are in the same unit (e.g., dollars, chips, blinds).
Enter Bet and Pot Sizes
Understanding Break-Even Fold Percentage
What is Fold Equity?
Fold equity is the portion of the pot that you expect to win when your opponent folds. It's the probability of your opponent folding multiplied by the size of the pot you win when they do.
What is the Break-Even Fold Percentage?
The Break-Even Fold Percentage (BEFP) is the minimum frequency your opponent(s) must fold for your bet to be profitable *even if you have no equity when called*. It helps you determine if a bluff or value bet targeting folds is mathematically sound based purely on pot odds and bet sizing.
Break-Even Fold Percentage Formula
The formula is derived from comparing the risk (your bet) to the reward (the pot you win if they fold):
BEFP = Your Bet Size / (Pot Size Before Bet + Your Bet Size)
This result is a decimal (e.g., 0.5). To get a percentage, you multiply by 100.
BEFP (%) = [Your Bet Size / (Pot Size + Your Bet Size)] * 100
Let's look at the components:
- Your Bet Size: The amount you wager. This is your risk.
- Pot Size Before Bet: The total amount of money or chips in the pot before you make your current bet. This, plus your bet if they fold, is your reward.
- Pot Size After Your Bet (if they call or fold): This is Pot Size Before Bet + Your Bet Size. This is the total amount you are trying to win by making them fold.
The formula essentially asks: "What percentage of the time do I need to win the total pot (Pot Size Before Bet + Your Bet Size) to justify risking my Bet Size?"
Fold Equity Calculation Examples
Click on an example to see the inputs and calculation:
Example 1: Small Bet into a Pot
Scenario: You bet 25 into a pot of 100.
Inputs: Bet Size = 25, Pot Size = 100.
Calculation: BEFP = 25 / (100 + 25) = 25 / 125 = 0.2
Result: BEFP = 20%
Conclusion: Your opponent needs to fold more than 20% of the time for this bluff to be profitable.
Example 2: Half-Pot Bet
Scenario: You bet 50 into a pot of 100.
Inputs: Bet Size = 50, Pot Size = 100.
Calculation: BEFP = 50 / (100 + 50) = 50 / 150 = 0.3333...
Result: BEFP ≈ 33.3%
Conclusion: You need a fold frequency greater than 33.3%.
Example 3: Pot-Sized Bet
Scenario: You bet 100 into a pot of 100.
Inputs: Bet Size = 100, Pot Size = 100.
Calculation: BEFP = 100 / (100 + 100) = 100 / 200 = 0.5
Result: BEFP = 50%
Conclusion: You need your opponent to fold over 50% of the time.
Example 4: Overbet
Scenario: You bet 200 into a pot of 100.
Inputs: Bet Size = 200, Pot Size = 100.
Calculation: BEFP = 200 / (100 + 200) = 200 / 300 = 0.6666...
Result: BEFP ≈ 66.7%
Conclusion: Overbets require a higher fold frequency to be profitable bluffs.
Example 5: Small Bet (Relative to Pot)
Scenario: You bet 10 chips into a pot of 200 chips.
Inputs: Bet Size = 10, Pot Size = 200.
Calculation: BEFP = 10 / (200 + 10) = 10 / 210 ≈ 0.0476
Result: BEFP ≈ 4.8%
Conclusion: A very small bet needs only a low fold percentage to break even (ignoring equity when called).
Example 6: Large Pot, Standard Bet
Scenario: Pot is 500, you bet 350.
Inputs: Bet Size = 350, Pot Size = 500.
Calculation: BEFP = 350 / (500 + 350) = 350 / 850 ≈ 0.4118
Result: BEFP ≈ 41.2%
Conclusion: You need folds slightly more than 41% of the time.
Example 7: Bet into Empty Pot (Preflop Jam)
Scenario: You are first to act preflop and shove 100 blinds. The pot is only the blinds (say, 1.5 blinds for SB+BB), but for simplicity relative to *your* bet, some people consider the "pot" you're trying to win initially as effectively 0 of your stack size, plus what you're risking. A better way is Bet / (Pot + Bet). Let's use a small preflop example relative to blinds.
Inputs: Bet Size = 10 (blinds), Pot Size = 1.5 (blinds).
Calculation: BEFP = 10 / (1.5 + 10) = 10 / 11.5 ≈ 0.8696
Result: BEFP ≈ 87.0%
Conclusion: Large preflop bets relative to the initial pot require a very high fold frequency.
Example 8: Minimum Bet
Scenario: You make a minimum bet (e.g., equal to the big blind) into a pot.
Inputs: Bet Size = 20, Pot Size = 200.
Calculation: BEFP = 20 / (200 + 20) = 20 / 220 ≈ 0.0909
Result: BEFP ≈ 9.1%
Conclusion: Small bets offer very good immediate odds if you expect even a small chance of folding.
Example 9: Bet Size = Pot Size
Scenario: Bet size exactly matches the pot size.
Inputs: Bet Size = 150, Pot Size = 150.
Calculation: BEFP = 150 / (150 + 150) = 150 / 300 = 0.5
Result: BEFP = 50%
Conclusion: A pot-sized bet always requires a 50% fold frequency to be break-even.
Example 10: Small Pot, Large Bet
Scenario: Pot is small (40), you bet large (80).
Inputs: Bet Size = 80, Pot Size = 40.
Calculation: BEFP = 80 / (40 + 80) = 80 / 120 ≈ 0.6667
Result: BEFP ≈ 66.7%
Conclusion: Betting significantly more than the pot requires your opponent to fold frequently.
Units and Interpretation
The calculator works with any consistent unit (dollars, chips, blinds). The output percentage is universal. The Break-Even Fold Percentage is a theoretical minimum; actual decisions involve considering your hand's equity when called, your opponent's calling range, their folding tendencies, and future streets.
Frequently Asked Questions about Fold Equity
1. What does Break-Even Fold Percentage mean?
It's the minimum percentage of the time your opponent(s) must fold for your bet to be profitable on average, assuming you have no chance to win if they call.
2. How is the Break-Even Fold Percentage calculated?
It's calculated using the formula: Your Bet Size / (Pot Size Before Bet + Your Bet Size).
3. Why is "Pot Size Before Bet" used in the formula?
The formula calculates the risk (your bet) compared to the reward (the entire pot you win if they fold, which includes the original pot plus your bet). The amount you are trying to *take down* is the pot *after* your bet goes in.
4. Does this calculation consider my hand's equity if called?
No, the Break-Even Fold Percentage calculation assumes 0% equity when called. If you have some equity when called (e.g., a draw or even the best hand), you need opponents to fold less often than the calculated percentage.
5. What inputs does this tool require?
It requires your bet size and the size of the pot immediately before you made your bet.
6. What are the limitations on the input values?
- Bet Size must be a positive number (> 0).
- Pot Size must be a non-negative number (>= 0).
- Both values should be in the same unit.
7. If the required fold percentage is 40%, what does that tell me?
It means if you think your opponent will fold more than 40% of the time to this specific bet size in this situation, the bluff is likely profitable based on the odds alone. If you think they fold less than 40%, the bluff is likely unprofitable *if you have no equity when called*.
8. Can I use this for value bets?
Yes, you can calculate the BEFP for a value bet. It tells you the minimum fold frequency needed if you were bluffing. If your value bet gets called, you have equity (often > 50%), making the bet profitable even if your opponent folds less often than the BEFP.
9. Why is understanding BEFP important?
It's a fundamental concept in poker strategy, especially for bluffing. It quantifies the amount of fold equity you need to justify a bet size, helping you choose bet sizes and evaluate bluffing spots.
10. What happens if I enter 0 for Bet Size?
The calculator requires a positive bet size (> 0) because you can't have fold equity if you don't bet. Entering 0 will result in an error message.
